Mid Season Review part 3: Trades

So now that we've already reviewed and analyzed DC United's acquisitions and departures since the close of the 2008 season, let's take a look at the trades. Basically just one big one, and a couple players swapped for late-round draft picks.

1. The biggest offseason move was DC United trading Ivan Guerrero, Colorado's own designated player slot, and a 2010 2nd round draft pick to the Rapids for Christian Gomez and goalkeeper Mike Graczyk. And of course the other player impacted, although not directly involved, would be Marcelo Gallardo, who had previously occupied that DP slot for United. If you're interested in some light reading for additional context, take a look back at my 2008 Gallardo/Gomez analysis, my 2009 Gomez/Gallardo analysis, and some additional analysis of the Gomez trade. The last post provides some real interesting insight into the frame of mind we were all in following this trade. Of course there were concerns about whether Gomez would be closer to his form from 2007 or from 2008 (verdict: 2007). There were also a lot of fans (including myself) who thought Guerrero and a 2nd was too much to give up (verdict: nope, Guerrero didn't play a single game for the Rapids in 2009 before returning to Honduras). And as inconsequential as the Graczyk acquisition was, this was the first sign that United was not pleased with its current set of goalkeepers (Crayton and Kocic). But the biggest outcome from the dual DC/Colorado swaps of 2008 and 2009 might be that the first trade got us the draft pick that turned into Chris Pontius, who is set to make a lasting impact on our club for years to come.

2. When DC United acquired Josh Wicks from the LA Galaxy, few of us were very excited. His 1-2-3 record with a 2.18 GAA in LA was less than impressive. But Wicks has now emerged as our clear starter, and could be a top 5 MLS keeper. According to dcunited.com, we gave up a 2010 4th round draft pick to get Wicks, but I think I recall Goff reporting that it was either a 3rd or a 4th depending on how many games Wicks started. If that's true, then it will surely turn into a 3rd, because Wicks is likely to start 20-22 games for us this year.

3. The final two trades each involved left backs and some conditional draft picks, with DC United losing Mike Zaher to the Earthquakes and gaining Avery John from the Revolution. With an eye on the future, it's hard to spin this exchange as a victory for United. John has been mostly terrible in his few appearances with United, unable to supplant Marc Burch from the starting left back slot as many fans had hoped. Zaher, on the other hand, has started 5 games for San Jose, and while that team is not exactly a defensive powerhouse, Zaher has apparently made some positive contributions. This isn't to say that Zaher would likely be starting ahead of Burchy either, but at least he earns less money than John and takes up a developmental slot (of which we now have two extras) instead of a precious senior slot like John.

That's all for the player movements. I'll do a summary by position of all the changes sometime next week. Quick programming note: I'll be in OCMD this weekend, so don't expect a writeup from the Colorado match until Monday or Tuesday night.

Reporting for duty

After a long boring winter solace with no new news of player acquisitions, we finally come upon the start of Training Camp 2009. We've got some fresh new faces, and some surprising absences. As Goff and BTB are reporting, the only new addition besides our draft picks is Kyle Veris, a 6'-3" defender who rode the bench in the Norwegian first division in 2008, last seen playing for that defensive juggernaut LA in 2007. Of our 5 draft picks, only defender Rodney Wallace, forward Chris Pontius, goalkeeper Milos Kocic, and midfielder Brandon Barklage are in camp, with defender Lyle Adams pursuing opportunities in Europe (hey - we knew it had to happen to at least one of these guys!).

But it's the conspicuously absent names of Ryan Cordeiro, Craig Thompson, Quavas Kirk, and Pat Carroll that has me upset the most.

I knew there would be some point during the season where we all complained about how terrible the MLS roster changes are, I just didn't think it would come this soon.

By cutting the developmental roster by 50% from 8 players to just 4, MLS is seriously limiting each team's ability to perform over the course of a full season. We all whined numerous times during 2008 about a lack of roster depth. And the league's reaction is to... trim rosters?

Here's a point for ya... Had the developmental roster only held 4 slots in previous years, Devon McTavish would not have been on the team. Same can probably be said for Marc Burch.

But United's reaction to the altered roster size is inexcusable. Why not at least invite Cordeiro, Thompson, Kirk, and Carroll to participate in the camp? This group of players contributed 769 minutes over the course on 28 appearances last season. Avid readers of this blog know that I fell in love with Ryan Cordeiro since the first day I saw him, which was when he scored the winning goal in extra time of the first Reserve division match last year. In his few appearances with the first team, he showed a lot of potential and I thought he was poised to be a bit more of a regular contributor this year. And what Craig Thompson lacked in size he made up for in effort.

Why not reward these guys for their efforts and at least give them a chance to qualify for the roster in 2009? Why not give Cordeiro a chance to push Pontius? Or Thompson to go head to head against Barklage? These kinds of competitions almost always result in both players playing better.

With the disappearance of Cordeiro, that means that not one of our draft picks from either of the past TWO seasons has remained on the roster for an entire year. Sarcastic claps to the Payne/Kasper/Soehn regime for that one. And the only rookie holdover from last season appears to be Mike Zaher. Nothing against either of them, but what did Zaher and Ryan Miller do so well to earn them camp invitations ahead of Carroll and Cordeiro?

I'm crossing my fingers that a few of these gents will be brought in later in camp, otherwise we bid them the best of luck finding new clubs. But with the way this offseason has gone, is anybody actually excited about the new season???

Roster reset

What better way to end 2008 than to post one of my patented roster resets. Things have changed dramatically around here with the new roster rules for 2009, but I think it's important to take a look at where United stands at the moment, if only just to highlight how many question marks there are going into next season. Since the MLS hasn't yet posted the official roster regulations for 2009, we're going to operate under the temporary assumptions that teams will still have 8 international player slots, and that 25 will still be the cutoff age for the Developmental roster.

Here's what we think we know:

Senior roster (now 20 slots): 1 Emilio, 2 Moreno, 3 Gallardo, 4 Fred, 5 Quaranta, 6 Khumalo, 7 Guerrero, 8 Simms, 9 Vide, 10 Burch, 11 McTavish, 12 Janicki, 13 Crayton, 14 Wells. 6 slots remaining.

Developmental roster (now 4 slots): 1 Cordeiro, 2 Thompson, 3 Carroll, 4 Zaher, 5 Thorpe. 1 player over the limit - No room for draft picks.

International players (assumed 8 slots): 1 Emilio, 2 Gallardo, 3 Fred, 4 Guerrero, 5 Crayton. 3 slots remaining.

It's hard to do this kind of analysis at this point in the year, because I've made a lot of assumptions in the info above. Joe Vide was relegated to the Developmental roster for some strange reason last year, but he seems to be a likely candidate to move up to the Senior roster in 2009. The same should be true for at least two of Cordeiro, Thompson, Carroll, and Zaher, to make room for our 2009 draft picks. James Thorpe is the only guy who I think should definitely stay on the D-roster. Ryan Miller and Ibrahim Koroma might be the most likely casualties of the reduction to the Developmental roster. Also, it's hard to say whether or not Khumalo is here on a green card and therefore exempt from international player status (similar to Moreno), but I'm assuming he's got a green card since he went to college in the US and has been playing here ever since.

So where does that leave us? What jumps out at me the most is that we've got 3 available international player slots. That's bound to get Kasper and Payne pretty excited. One of those slots could get used up pretty quick if Peralta chooses to re-sign (which I think he will), but we've certainly got the roster space and salary cap available for Kasper and Payne to do their usual and take a gamble on some other foreign players too. We certainly hope they do a better job at talent evaluation than last year. Because there's much less room for error this year with the smaller rosters.

Just because you see 6 available senior roster slots available, doesn't mean that we've got room to spare for unproven South Americans. Keep in mind that we've also got the question marks of Bryan Namoff and Quavas Kirk, who are out of contract, and Ben Olsen and Dominic Mediate, who may or may not return from injuries. If, conservatively speaking, 2 out of those 4 guys return, and Peralta returns, and say Cordeiro, Thompson, and Pat Carroll are promoted, our 6 available senior roster slots has suddenly diminished to 1.

This offseason is starting to look a bit bleak.

With 2008 being a year that most United fans would like to forget, this will probably be my final post of the year. Next time we'll look forward to 2009 and focus on what the team needs to do to improve its chances in the new year.

MLS Roster changes

Goff revealed yesterday several changes for 2009 that were unveiled in the Board of Governors meeting yesterday prior to MLS Cup. In summation of the most important change, the league has added senior roster slots, but trimmed the total roster size. Instead of 18 senior roster slots and 10 developmental roster slots as we had in 2008, we will have 20 senior roster slots and 4 developmental roster slots in 2009. The reserve division has also been eliminated.

I don't see how this is progress. With all the whining about fixture congestion and injuries this year, the league's reaction is to CUT the roster size?? It's nice that we can now pay two additional players a living wage (~$33K) instead of a peasant's fee (~$17K), but why did that have to come at the expense of six developmental roster slots?

The MLS Draft is coming up soon, and each team gets 6 draft picks. You are basically telling those 6 players who you draft that there are only a maximum of 4 slots available for them. And not only will they have to compete with the rest of their draft class, but also last year's holdovers. With those odds, it sounds much more appealing to skip the MLS Draft and look for opportunities in the USL or in second tier divisions in Europe.

Just take a look at DC United's Developmental roster at the conclusion of the year: Jeff Carroll, Pat Carroll, Ryan Cordeiro, Greg Janicki, Quavas Kirk, Ibrahim Koroma, Ryan Miller, Craig Thompson, James Thorpe, and Mike Zaher. Several of these players made pretty significant contributions this year. Sure, it's nice to imagine that maybe the team could bump Janicki or Thompson or Cordeiro up to the senior roster, but it might also be just as likely that the team will only keep 4 of these 10 guys, and they'll have to compete with our 2009 draft picks also. With the new roster restrictions, it would be highly unlikely for the team to sign an undrafted guy like Pat Carroll, or trade for a low level draft pick like Thompson who wasn't getting playing time with his current team. Well Carroll made 4 appearances this year and Thompson made 6. Without having that roster depth, we would have really been screwed at certain points during the season, and we would have probably had to play other guys out of position just to fill the starting lineup.

It's no surprise that the league disbanded the reserve division, because they were cancelling reserve matches left and right at the end of the season. But this will just make it more difficult for hard working guys like Cordeiro and Zaher to make a good impression on the coaching staff and earn first team appearances. Without the reserve division, it will be real tough for our reserves to get actual match experience. Others have already commented that we will probably see an increase in loans from the MLS to the USL, which is a great idea, but not necessarily the best solution.

I understand from a business perspective why MLS made these changes, but it's just sad that so many young talented American players who had the dream of playing professional soccer might not get that opportunity.