DC United 2009 expansion protection list

With MLS Cup 2009 now behind us, the league turns immediately to 2010. While congratulations are due to Real Salt Lake, with a nod in particular to two of my favorite non-DC players Nick Rimando and Kyle Beckerman, the celebration won't last long for that club, because they are likely to be losing a player just three days later. Each MLS team will submit a list of 11 players today and the Philadelphia Union will be selecting 10 players in the expansion draft on Wednesday. Generation Adidas players (Rodney Wallace) and homegrown players (Bill Hamid) are excluded.

I've been thinking a lot over the past few months about which players DC United should place on their protection list. My conclusion was that I was thinking too much. There are really only two questions that should be asked about each player on our roster:

1. Is he likely to play an important role for us in 2010?
2. Is he likely to be an attractive pick for Philadelphia?

If the answer to both of these questions is YES, then that player needs to be protected. If the answer to both questions is NO, then the player should not be protected. That much seems very simple.

I answer YES to both questions for: Bryan Namoff, Dejan Jakovic, Clyde Simms, Santino Quaranta, Chris Pontius, Julius James, and Jaime Moreno. Any surprises there? I don't think anyone is going to disagree with me on the first five. Others have left James off of the "Must-protect" list, but I think he has proved to be a valuable member of our team and could also be seen as attractive to PU. Moreno is the only guy I've seen missing from some other lists, but he is definitely still an important player for this team. Even if he doesn't start every match, he raises our level of play when on the field. And despite his advanced age, you're crazy if you don't think Piotr Nowak would strongly consider taking the MLS all-time leading scorer who was at his best when playing in Nowak's system.

I answer NO to both questions for: Josh Wicks, Milos Kocic, Avery John, David Habarugira, Greg Janicki, John DiRaimondo, Ely Allen, Tiyi Shipalane, Brandon Barklage, Boyzzz Khumalo, and Ange N'Silu. Any disagreement? Some have mentioned Wicks because of his shot-stopping or Kocic because of his age, but I don't think United is sold on either one being our #1 GK next season, and I don't think either is likely to be selected by PU for the same reason. Habarugira may have a lot of upside, but he's years away from being a regular starter, and I don't think the Union are going to take a flyer on him when other proven defenders will be available. How about Khumalo? He is sometimes important to our team as a reserve forward, but hasn't made enough of an impact in MLS yet to be considered a building block for a new team.

So then we are left with 4 slots remaining to be awarded among the following 8 players: Lawson Vaughn, Marc Burch, Devon McTavish, Danny Szetela, Andrew Jacobson, Fred, Christian Gomez, and Luciano Emilio. Let's look at each player a little closer.

Of the three defenders, Marc Burch has been the most valuable to the club over the past three years, due mostly to the extreme lack of quality left backs in MLS. Surely DC United will hope to upgrade at that position in the offseason, but I question our chances of finding a more skilled replacement. If the team is able to upgrade though, then Burch would be relegated to defensive depth, putting him in the exact same category as Vaughn and McTavish. McTavish was drafted by Nowak in 2006, so there might be a little bit of sentimentality there, but probably not. The good news is, if we happened to decide to leave all three unprotected, we're only going to lose one at most.

The competition for starting holding midfielder for DC United just got a little bit more intense with Olsen's retirement, and so we have to consider whether Danny Szetela or Andrew Jacobson is more vital to the team's future plans. Both have shown good promise at times for us in 2009, but neither has fully established himself as a capable starter. So without really knowing which one is more likely to win a starting job in 2010, we're just left to question which one would look more attractive to PU. Got to give the nod to Szetela there.

Lumping Fred, Gomez, and Emilio all together, we have a few very serious unresolved questions. And while others have disagreed with me, this is where I'd really hoped that we would have a new head coach in place prior to the expansion draft. Deciding between keeping Burch, Vaughn, and McTavish might not be a critical decision that will have a huge impact on our season, but deciding between keeping Fred, Gomez, and Emilio is. All three have been great players for DC United at some point in the past, and any one of them might be great for us again in the future. It's just hard to say which. So again, without having further insight into the mind of Dave Kasper to determine if any of these players is even going to be offered a contract for 2010, we're left to look only at what value Philadelphia might place on each player when starting from scrach. Could Fred be deemed as an important building block and allowed to play in his most natural position with the new club? Probably. Gomez had 14 goals and 11 assists and was named the league MVP when playing for Nowak in 2006, but is the coach likely to select a player that has so obviously lost a step (or two)? Probably not. And then there's Emilio. No one knows yet if he'll be back in MLS next season, or what salary he will command if he is back. But if he is left exposed, he will undoubtedly be the only 2009 10-goal scorer exposed.

I honestly didn't have a list in mind when I started writing this, but the right choices are starting to become more clear to me. I'm set on 10 out of 11 players: Namoff, Jakovic, James, Simms, Quaranta, Pontius, Moreno, Szetela, Fred, and Emilio. And finally, an argument could be made for either Jacobson or Burch, but this just wouldn't be the DCUMD blog if I didn't settle on Marc Burch in the end.

RIVER OR LIFE: Defenders

Continuing the series where we vote "River" for players that we want to see DC United cast away and we vote "Life" for players that we hope will return, let's take a look now at DCU's defenders. I have a feeling this group will prove more interesting than the defensive midfielders, who received mostly favorable ratings.

Voted the team's MVP and defensive player of the year, Bryan Namoff had his most productive season for United in 2009 with 2 goals and 4 assists. Losing Namoff to a concussion late in the season may have been the beginning of the end for United's playoff hopes, but we've heard good indications so far that he will be ready for the start of 2010.

poll by twiigs.com

The Canadian/Serbian import Dejan Jakovic was very impressive in his first year with the club, starting every match when healthy and emerging as the leader of our defense. The whole team struggled at times when playing with only 3 in the back, a formation that Jakovic himself expressed some dislike for. It will be interesting to see how he does if given a full season with a running mate in a 4-man back-line.

poll by twiigs.com

Despite being the most frequent scapegoat for the team's defensive failures, Marc Burch was the preferred starter at left back for the entirety of the 2009 season. Before this year, I was fond of saying that Burch's play had improved every year since being converted to a left back. This was true in 2007 and 2008, but I'm not so sure it was true in 2009.

poll by twiigs.com

Julius James had the honor of being traded for Dwayne DeRosario, but he never really caught on in MLS until joining DC late this season. James had some good games and some bad games, which probably puts him better than average on the scale of central defenders we've seen the past few years.

poll by twiigs.com

The acquisition of Avery John was supposed to give Burch some competition at left back, especially since John had done well when playing in a 3-man back-line previously with the Revolution. That competition didn't last long, but John was still able to give the team some veteran defensive depth and fill in when necessary due to injuries.

poll by twiigs.com

A former starter for Chivas USA, Lawson Vaughn joined the team in September, and was called on almost immediately to help fill the void at right back that was left due to Namoff's injury. His play was adequate enough to earn him a roster slot with some MLS team next year. But will it be with DC United?

poll by twiigs.com

Greg Janicki impressed many of us when joining the team on loan from Pittsburgh late in 2008, but his awful 2009 campaign caused him to be benched, and then to be placed on injured reserve for back spasms that were apparently suffered as a result of sitting on the bench too long. Unfortunately for Janicki, his terrible performance at Marathon may have been his last with the club.

poll by twiigs.com

The young and much heralded David Habarugira displayed some quickness and physical ability in his few appearances with United. You would have thought the Burundian International could have earned more appearances for himself when our back-line suffered multiple injuries, but that never materialized. Does anyone else remember the name Ibrahim Koroma? Yeah, I didn't think so.

poll by twiigs.com

DC United tie at Toluca, 1-1

Finishing 1-1 against the leader of the Mexican Primera Division on the road is a better result than most of us expected, and probably a better result than we deserved. Still, thanks to some inspired play by a few individuals, and some poor shooting by Toluca, we emerged with a single point.

A win would have secured our spot in the Champions' League quarterfinals, but let's not count ourselves out yet. That spot will now come down to the result of the Marathon at San Juan Jabloteh match on Thursday night. SJJ won't want to finish the CCL with zero points so they are going to try their hardest to earn a positive result, and they played both DCU and Toluca to 1-0 losses. Hopefully Marathon's plane gets delayed again.


1. Chris Pontius opened the scoring in the sixth minute with a brilliant strike. And despite taking what I thought was an injury off a hard Toluca challenge (that went un-whistled of course), he fought hard for 90 minutes.

2. The best defender for United tonight was Devon McTavish. I actually thought removing him around the 60th minute was the wrong move because he'd played so well, and because he's done so well in Champions' Cup/League matches in the past.

3. Steve Cronin continues to raise his transfer price with another excellent performance in net.


1. I mentioned that Pontius fought hard for 90 minutes. Unfortunately that wasn't true for every member of the team, but it was true for Julius James and Fred. Wasn't the best performance for either of them, but each contributed when necessary, and were running until the end despite being clearly gassed.


1. The penalty kick call against Lawson Vaughn was a bit unlucky because the foul was definitely not intentional. But if the player hadn't run around him so easily to begin with, he never would have been in that position. Vaughn was right up there next to McTavish after the first half, but he dropped off considerably in the second.

2. Other than Fred, our first half midfield combination of John DiRaimondo, Danny Szetela, and Boyzzz Khumalo was the worst we've seen all year from DC United. Toluca had no problems dribbling through our midfield, and we weren't able to build any considerable amount of possession. The presence of Simms/Olsen/Jacobson was sorely missed.

With a tie and two days wait until the conclusion of the group stage, the CCL is now out of our hands. Maybe we'll advance, maybe we won't.

What's not out of our hands though is our MLS playoff potential! It's do or die at Kansas City on Saturday. I'm not going to waste my time attempting to write up any playoff scenarios again (you can get that here), but let's just say that a loss or tie leaves us with very little chance of survival.

Two important matches Thursday night - Chivas at Chicago and Marathon at Jabloteh. Each could have a huge impact on our team's future. All we can do on Thursday night though is hope for the best. Saturday is when it's time to take care of business.

DC United lose to San Jose Earthquakes, 2-1

This weekend had set itself up really nicely for DC United. After losses by Seattle and RSL, and ties by Colorado, Chivas, and Toronto, DC United only needed a home victory against the worst road team in the leauge in order to move into 5th place. But the underdogs continued to impress. Not only did United lose, but they really deserved to lose. They were a close offsides call away from being tied at the half.

The turning point seemed to come when Josh Wicks dislocated a shoulder, the latest in a string of injuries that has made our playoff run much more difficult. With our two best defenders out, and now our best goalkeeper walking to the locker room wearing an arm brace, United apparently lost all confidence, and gave up two unnecessary goals. And now we'll finish the season with a grand total of 1 point in 2 matches against the Earthquakes and their Western Conference worst record.


1. Chris Pontius was our most dangerous player today. His overlapping run and cross to Moreno set up the first goal. But it was his bicycle kick late in the match that really set Pontius apart, as it should have tied the match if not for a goalline save by a San Jose player. When all of the other older United players faded away, Pontius was the only player still running hard and getting himself into good positions. It was just earlier this week that I suggested that Pontius should be our regular starter at left wing for the rest of the season, but his best position is still forward, so it's kind of hard to say.

2. For two matches in a row now, our hardest working player has been Ben Olsen. His creativity and high soccer IQ started the play that led to Pontius's bike, and he also started the sequence that led to Moreno's goal.


1. Jaime Moreno scored our lone goal in this one, but then he was entirely absent in the second half, which isn't what I like to see from our captain.


1. Really poor effort from Lawson Vaughn. Twice Ryan Johnson should have been marked by Vaughn when he put the ball into the net. One of those times the goal was disallowed for offsides, but Vaughn was just standing around on the winning goal instead of marking Johnson on the rebound. Before the Marathon match, I thought that McTavish would be our regular replacement for Namoff at right back. I'm not sure why our coaching staff thought that a guy who hasn't played a league match in 2009 was a better option.

2. Apparently Luciano Emilio isn't one to believe in momentum. Nor I guess is the entire United team. After an epic two-goal performance earlier in the week, Emilio couldn't get a ball on target despite multiple chances.

3. It's hard to truly fault him for either goal, but I don't think it's just a coincidence that Josh Wicks was pitching a shutout, but San Jose scored two goals as soon as Milos Kocic came on.

4. Julius James really didn't need to give up a foul at the top of the box in the 58th minute. It was that foul that led to the Quakes' first goal. And Marc Burch's defensive gaff leading to the Quakes' winning goal could be a huge detriment to our playoff chances.

And with that loss, DC United's playoff chances just got a whole lot tougher. With a win, we would have been in fifth place, the first wildcard slot, and would have been in complete control of our destiny for the remainder of the season. But with a loss, we remain one point behind the Revolution (who have still played two fewer matches), and two points behind Seattle and Chivas.

The good news though is that we play against Chivas USA at home next week, while Seattle are on the road against the red hot Columbus Crew. So with the right results, we still have a good shot, but we can't keep letting good chances slip away. Regardless, it looks like everything is going to come down to the last weekend again. And I guess we shouldn't really be surprised by that.

DC United win vs Marathon, 3-0

This win was exactly what we needed. Nothing will inspire confidence in a team fighting for playoff position like a multiple goal victory in which we were clearly the better team.

The offense is clicking, and oh yeah, that's 3 shutouts in our last 4 matches. With a makeshift backline at that. Is it possible that DC United is peaking at exactly the right time? In 2006 and 2007 we peaked too early and faded late in the regular season, only to bust out of the playoffs before advancing out of the Eastern Conference. With the talent that this team has up front, and with Jakovic and Burch both hopefully to return to the starting lineup on Sunday, I see no reason why we can't be one of the leading contenders to reach MLS Cup.


1. When Luciano Emilio is hot, he's hot. How's that for analysis? Within the first 10 minutes of the match, Luci was getting chances, but missing them. In the second half, he just didn't know how to miss. His first goal came from a well directed header off a John cross, and the final goal was all Emilio, beating the Marathon keeper 1v1.

2. I'm not sure if DC was poised to pull away in the second half already, but the insertion of Jaime Moreno couldn't have hurt. He got off to a slow start, but his goal was just classic Moreno. He is still one of the best in MLS in that position in front of the goal because he is just so cool and collected.

3. So a 4-4-2 formation with two attacking wingers and two holding midfielders? I think this is what a lot of us had envisioned when United moved away from the diamond 4 midfield, but it's never looked as good as it looked tonight. The combination of Chris Pontius on the left and Santino Quaranta on the right is perfect for this formation. Pontius started the sequence that led to the first goal with a run up the left side, and Quaranta's smart touch to Moreno earned him an assist on the second. These two should be starting in these positions for the remainder of the MLS season. It's telling that Fred wasn't even on the 18-man roster.

4. Avery John and Lawson Vaughn both played well as our two fullbacks. John conjured up his inner Burch on his assist to Emilio for the first goal, and also shut down every attack on that side of the field. In his United debut, Vaughn certainly didn't look like a guy playing his first match in 2009, and he did well in replacing the unreplaceable Namoff.

5. Give credit to Josh Wicks, Julius James, and Clyde Simms for earning 3 clean sheets in our last 4 matches.


1. I didn't quite understand the removal of Tiyi Shipalane before halftime, but it seemed to work in Soehn's favor. Shipalane performed well getting forward, as I think we all expected against an inferior opponent. It probably won't be until next season that we get to see what he can do against another MLS team.


None.

In the Insider's poll earlier this week, only 23% of voters predicted that United would advance in the Champions League. Now all it will take next week is a United victory at home over SJJ and a Toluca victory on the road over Marathon. Both are very likely at this point, and then all that will be left will be a meaningless faceoff between the B teams of DC and Toluca, with both having already clinched a spot in the next round. The quarterfinals won't be held until the week before the start of the 2010 MLS season, so no need to worry about fixture congestion at this point. It will be tough to advance further than that, but I think most United fans would be satisfied with the progress of at least moving past the group stage.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The more important match is this weekend against San Jose, who have already done us a lot of good by tying the Rapids twice in the last week. Look for United to put out the strongest starting lineup we've seen in months on Sunday. A win is all we need, but I think I'll be surprised if we win by anything less than 2 goals.